Job Title: Senior Forecasting Analyst
Reporting to Forecasting Manager
The role is based in London
Analyzing and forecasting natural gas & power demand for a portfolio of approximately 80+ TWh gas and 16+ TWh power
Produces daily reports and analyze data relating to Customer and Procurement activity
The forecast created by this team is a key input into portfolio procurement decisions and therefore has the capacity to significantly impact profitability
Through accurate short-term demand forecasting, the post-holder will aid procurement decision-making and help reduce balancing costs
Development of short term demand forecasting methodologies for PGE European electricity and gas portfolio. Ensure that models/processes used are accurate and facilitate a timely delivery of data to the Procurement team
Proactively manage standards and pre-empt events and portfolio changes.
Monitor forecast error, report on forecast performance and perform analysis which will further develop demand forecasting methodologies in order to improve the accuracy of demand forecasts
Analyse system prices which may lead to high imbalance costs
Explain periods of volatile consumption and subsequent forecast errors if necessary
Analyse prompt balancing and outturn Profit & Loss performance
Address ad-hoc queries from internal & external stakeholders.
Lead improvements to the efficiency and accuracy of existing operational tasks, and implementation of new tools focused on performance improvement
Manage projects with IT, raising faults or suggesting improvements to systems which will enhance the team's reporting
Approve User Acceptance Testing and manage the implementation of new data management systems
Service & Teamwork
Build relationships with the local entity points of contact
Answer queries in a timely manner, ensuring that as a member of the central team a high level of service is always delivered
Take ownership of processes & suggest means to improve team cohesion and effectiveness.
Engage where required in meetings/training for HSE improvements and drive improvements within the team (e.g. fire extinguishers, internal compliance)
Context and environment
The jobholder is to be able to work both autonomously and within a team, providing help to less experienced Forecasting analysts. Some business travel to entities may be required for training & to fulfil the role. Based in a fast paced environment, with rapidly expanding geographic responsibilities, the position requires daily interaction with other departments within the Procurement function & across all PGE entities.
The job holder brings a strong contribution to the Forecasting team with an in-depth knowledge of forecasting techniques, especially pertaining to utility demand forecasting for gas and power.
Being recognised as an expert on forecasting, the job holder plays an important role within the team, working closely with the Forecasting manager and providing support to less experienced analysts. The role is key to ensure high quality forecasting and reporting across portfolios.
Qualifications / experience required
Previous commercial experience within the Electricity and Gas industry (2/3+ years)
Degree in a numerate/analytical discipline e.g. Economics, Statistics, Computer Science (essential)
Strong analytical ability (essential)
Strong communication skills; ability to communicate technical arguments to non-technical audiences (essential)
Good knowledge of Microsoft applications, in particular Excel and Access (essential)
Knowledge of SQL & VBA
Adaptability and capacity to improvise is highly regarded given tight deadlines necessitating quick decision making